As the 2024 Presidential Election looms, there is no doubt that the battle for the White House is heating up. Democratic candidate Kamala Harris has proven herself to be a strong contender, and underestimating her would be a grave mistake. 

Recent data suggests that Harris could very well be the one to watch as Election Day approaches. According to a recent poll by CNN, Harris’s performance against former president Donald Trump has improved compared to President Biden, showing that her appeal to a wider spectrum of voters may give her an edge in key states: “Harris hangs on to 95% of those who earlier said they supported Biden, while Trump retains the support of a slightly smaller 92% of his previous backers. Those who previously said they would support neither Biden nor Trump in a two-way matchup now split 30% for Harris and 27% for Trump.” 

Harris’s performance in the September 10 debate gave her campaign significant momentum, with a majority of likely voters—including one in five Republicans—believing she emerged victorious. As voters increasingly recognize Harris’s position on the issues facing the nation, one thing is certain— Kamala Harris is proving that she has what it takes to lead a changing America. 

Furthermore, renowned political historian and election predictor Allan Lichtman has thrown his support behind Harris, suggesting that she will win the race. Known for accurately predicting the outcomes of nine out of the last ten U.S presidential elections, Lichtman used his “13 Keys to the White House” model, which evaluates the state of the economy, social unrest, and presence of scandals, among other factors. According to Lichtman, Harris has secured eight of the thirteen keys, which is a strong advantage over Donald Trump, who only has three keys in his favor. 

Kamala Harris’s campaign has gained an advantage with the focus on connecting with various demographics, including suburban voters, women, and communities of color. This approach is complemented by Harris’s background as a former attorney general, senator, and current Vice President of the United States— lending her the credibility to lead a nation. As the United States continues to face challenges, voters will  look for someone who can actually lead a country in times of crisis. While the road to the White House is never a predictable one, Harris’s current trajectory suggests that she is in a good position to secure victory in 2024.

Donald Trump’s 2016 upset victory over Hillary Clinton left many Americans shocked and confused. Despite pollsters and analysts predicting a decisive Clinton win, Trump managed to secure small margins of victory in important swing states, winning the electoral college and thereby the Presidency. As the 2024 election approaches and Trump returns to challenge for the presidency, many wonder if the same electoral college advantage that brought Trump to power will bring him back.

This election, issues like inflation, foreign policy, and immigration will be key factors in determining the next President. As voters head to the polls, they will essentially vote in a referendum on the Biden administration’s performance. With Biden’s approval rating currently at 41%, being tied to him as his VP will likely prove detrimental to Harris’s campaign.

Though it is nearly certain that Kamala Harris will win the popular vote, it is swing states that will determine who wins the Presidency. So far, Harris faces an uphill battle in these regions. Despite her nationwide favorability over Trump, she’s neck and neck with him in swing states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Moreover, Harris lags on principal issues such as immigration, foreign policy and the economy.

For example, the border crisis, which has racked Arizona, a state that played a key role in Biden’s victory in 2020, is pushing many voters to flip their votes from blue to red. Though Harris maintains a razor-thin lead in the polls, 51% of Arizona voters state that Trump will do a better job at handling the border than Harris. Since immigration is the third most important issue for voters in Arizona, Trump’s hardline stance against illegal immigration will attract voters who view Biden’s administration and by extension Harris as weak on the border.

Harris faces problems in the Rust Belt as well. In Michigan, the war in Gaza has pushed many traditionally Democratic voters to either boycott the election or vote Republican. Much of Michigan’s large Arab and Muslim population who voted blue overwhelmingly in 2020 are angered by Biden’s support of Israel and blame him for the current situation, earning the moniker “Genocide Joe.” Recently, in Michigan’s Democratic primary, 100,000 voters, many of them Arab and Muslim, voted uncommitted, signaling dissatisfaction with Biden’s foreign policy. Considering Democrats only won Michigan by a margin of just over 150,000 last election, too many votes lost or flipped could spell a Trump victory in the state.

Ultimately, despite what polls may suggest, Harris’s lead is not significant when it comes to the areas that matter most. The swing states that went for Biden will likely go for Trump this election as voters see him as being stronger on vital issues and reject the Biden-Harris administration for its perceived failures. As the election looms closer, a Trump victory seems likely as Harris struggles to win swing voters and hold onto loyal democratic ones.